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  • PRICE$113.64
  • % CHANGE0.04%
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Why This Biotech Could See 30% Upside In The Second Quarter

Alexion Pharmaceuticals (ALXN) could see as much as 30% upside if its rare blood disease drug outperforms its already approved medication, Soliris, in a pair of Phase 3 trials, an analyst said Friday, prodding the company's stock to pop.

In early trading on the stock market today, Alexion surged 7.2% to close at 114.46. The analysis came a day after Alexion announced a partnership that will allow it to use Halozyme Therapeutics' (HALO) technology for drug injections.

The biotech is testing a drug dubbed ALXN1210 in blood diseases known as paroxysmal nocturnal hemoglobinuria and atypical hemolytic uremic syndrome. Results are expected in the second quarter of 2018.

"We see as much as 30% upside from the current stock price to our base case outcome from the trials," Leerink analyst Geoffrey Porges said in a note to clients.

Soliris is already approved to treat both conditions. But the drug is set to lose patent protection in 2027 and 2023 in the U.S. and Europe, respectively. Alexion is betting on Soliris patients switching to ALXN1210 if it's approved.

Adoption of ALXN1210 will be higher if it proves superior to Soliris in clinical trials, rather than simply non-inferior or inferior, Porges said. He sees 30% and 20% upside if ALXN1210 proves superior or non-inferior to Soliris, and 5%-10% downside if it fails.

"We model that Alexion can convert 80% of patients within three years if ALXN1210 shows superiority, but only 50% if the outcome is only non-inferiority," he said. If ALXN1210 proves inferior to Soliris, it will likely be discontinued.

Porges suggests Alexion could become a takeout candidate if ALXN1210 fails, causing volatility in the stock. Even without ALXN1210, its cash flows from 2018-27 support a 90-100 stock price.

"We believe the remaining assets would still have a high likelihood of being purchased at our downside valuation and management is likely to be a willing seller in that low probability scenario," he said.

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